Nonsense

Dramatic coverage in the local newspaper.

"An increasing risk of coastal hazards due to climate change and cyclone Gabrielle threatened the Charitys Clive living premises"

Let's analyse  this comment.

Increasing risk. There is no increasing risk of coastal hazards. The coast is one of those marvelous natural features that is ever changing, moving , eroding ,accreting encroaching.

It has done forever and will continue to do so.

Due to climate change.  The climate has always changed. Always will. But this natural occurrence is not 'increasing' the risk of coastal hazards. There have always been coastal hazards and they come and go .May be even the weather adds to the coming and going.

Due to Cyclone Gabrielle. Yes the weather. From time to time NZ is subject to weather events such as cyclones and they vary in strength.

Cyclone Gabrielle may have been a wake up call for the Charity. I think they were extremely lucky that the adjacent river did not breach its stopbanks this time.

My memory recalls a rain event where the area where Hohepa is housed was subject to flooding and an orchard further along the road was under water. Do we learn from history ?   

I do note that further comment states that the " re-location project started in 2018 driven by Clives' increasingly unstable  coastal environment."

Should this not be interpreted as the re-location was driven by the realisation that the complex was built in a flood prone area and it was wise to move operations?  I wonder who made the original decision to build on the site and what advice did they receive about the suitability of housing vulnerable people in such a risk prone site.

Nature carries on .

Understanding nature is being abused by the environmentally vacant.

 

 

 

 

 North Carolina

What parallels.

I relate to all those in North Carolina and everywhere else that was devastated by Cyclone Helen.

Watching many videos of the destruction and trashing of townships like Ashville brings back memories of Gabrielle. Many similarities and the responses have been similar as well.

The authorities reaction is mimicked as well. Control, control.

While there has to be some organisation and guidelines locals seem to be ignored and even stopped from helping friends and neighbors .

Good to see locals just going about helping and ignoring the bossy britches who know best. Don't look to the Government .They will not help you.

Reach out and help friends and neighbors.

Watched one harrowing video of a house being washed down stream with a lady stranded on the house. A guy went out in a canoe to recue her but fell out of the canoe.He carried on in the current and the lady by now was in the water. Somehow he managed to catch the lady and make his way to safety.   

Another hero.

There are still so many missing which is so sad and the stories to come are going to be harrowing and hard to comprehend.

Any claims by leaders such as Biden , that climate change is responsible, need to be challenged bigtime.

The same area was hit by a similar storm in 1916. This one was much worse and those who remembered the 1916 event indicated that lessons were learned and rebuilding considered levels from that flood but this latest event enveloped a greater area .

It appears only 2% of people had flood insurance. They never expected a repeat and also insurance premiums had risen to an extent that people could not afford flood  insurance. It is interesting that they could opt for such insurance as here everything is lobbed in together.

Insurance in the light of flooding around the world may be an area that needs a whole rethink.

Residents in my area should have been protected from flood waters as stopbanks had been constructed for a 1 in 100 year flood  but they succumbed to the forces of a 1 in 500 year flood event .It becomes a question of who is responsible. Not for the blame game but as a rational discussion given the extraordinary circumstances.

I note one resident  from NC saying that Helene was a 1 in a 1000 year event. These events are beyond past considerations and need careful analysis to plan ahead and learn from what has happened .Playing with computer models is a waste of time.

There is a long way to go for NC and surrounds.

It is life changing. Losing everything you have is such a huge challenge to confront and all I can say is that in the initial stages after Gabrielle I didn't care about material things. It is a shock but  you realise you can replace things.

It's the loss of photographs and irreplaceable items that hit hard .

Dig in there my friends in NC .

Thoughts with you.  

 

 

On a High

Still on a high after last weekend. Time flies but kept reflecting on the progress made by the team and the huge difference it makes to where I am at.

Ticked off some more boxes during the week as I was able to fix up some more bits and pieces and even took apart the grease gun which was still silty and not working. Little tasks like that help the future attack on jobs that ease the burden and result in a more normal existence.

There are still some pieces to put together and one is carpet to replace the silt soaked mess that had to be ripped up and thrown in the skip. At least with a concrete floor it has been easy to clean up in preparation for an new dimension in the bedrooms.

What a dilemma. What colour do I choose? Seems trivial after the upheaval. Not to demean the excitement of being able to  replace something I thought would take years of saving.

There are other surprises to come but I am at a point where I can function pretty well and look forward to summer and maybe some returns at last.

One thing that disrupts is the political interference with time.

Why do politicians think they can dictate what the time is? The short ,only one hour, spring forward dictate has a debilitating effect on many human beings. Well those of us that are in tune with nature and the sun and the moon. Our biorythms are disrupted as we are forced to endure longer working days and more daylight to fade the curtains. Well not quite.

Many , especially politicians , do not understand nature. They are environmentally vacant and I will never forgive those (and I know who they are ) said we the people would have more time for BBQ's if daylight saving was extended.

What extraordinary reasoning.   

It will take a week to adapt to the forced time change and then hours worked will increase ,It's just the way it is.

Oh well it's a lovely fine day.Time to enjoy.   

 

 Great People

A weekend to celebrate.

Big team turned up on Sunday and launched into a list of jobs I had put off because of difficulty or time restraints.

What a difference it makes having many hands actively moving and shifting, pushing and pulling and even painting and cleaning.

Managed to extract a fence out of overgrown weeds and silt and stand it up ready for new posts and straining. Would have taken me days to do the job and yet we had it done in an hour.

More silt shifted from nooks and crannys and cladding removed cleaned and replaced.

Can't thank the team enough.

All the while my mind had been flicking to the site of major flooding in Europe. So many countries experiencing rain events leading to rivers breaching banks and even dams bursting.

I now understand what these people will be confronted with and wish them all the best. It is heartbraking and challenging .

Stay strong all of you.      

Reports and more Reports. 

A new NIWA led study has found climate change increased the amount of total rainfall during Cyclone Gabrielle by 10%.

Heavens to Mergatroid . 

Why on earth would a study be needed to investigate this spurious charge in the first place.

It was a major event as we all know but to try and attribute a portion to  a fraud is beyond the pale.

This appears to be no more than trying to justify or back up the position of  a body that should be providing us with facts not fallacy.

"The  extra rain (extra rain!!!)  suggests climate change had an amplified effect on the flooding that occurred."

What is extra rain?  The next forecast will explain that there will be 40mm of rain and an extra 5mm for climate change.  

'Amplified the effect on the flooding that occurred' 

I'll tell you what amplified the effect on the flooding that occurred. It was structural failure. The inability of stopbanks to hold the massive volumes of water in check .It was the trash that formed dams behind bridges and the failure of the system to cope with such a huge event.

A NIWA scientist says if the world (the world) continues to warm at the present rate then storm events are likely to become even more extreme..

This is a claim that is not verified. According to records storm events have been of less frequency. This is an inflammatory statement that the Government and Insurance Companies use to hit us with more costly policy decisions .

The study goes on to suggest "the best way to tackle future storms is to reduce our greenhouse emissions to halt or even reverse the warming of our climate." 

Nothing we do in New Zealand to reduce greenhouse emissions , will have the slightest effect on halting the warming of our climate.

The only effect will be on our collective pockets as we plant trees to bail out overseas corporates  and kill off the farming industry that has been the backbone of this country.

This is the insanity we are facing.

 

   

WAIROA WIN

It was great to see the report looking in to the last flood event in Wairoa backing up Mayor Littles  concerns about the lack of planning around opening the Wairoa river mouth at times of heavy rain fall.

What has happened?

I am sure that as a former Regional Councillor that there was a protocol in place years ago and the Works Group arranged the opening of the bar when it was considered there was going to be the possibility of flooding.

Indeed it was common practice for other river outlets such as the Tutaekuri at Awatoto.

What has happened over the years.?

That is the question.

The Regional Council has historical records with photographs showing the Wairoa river mouth being opened by men with shovels in 1911.

Historically remedial work could only be carried out successfully  and economically  when the  river flow and sea conditions were suitable. To overcome financial problems the Board (Catchment Board at the time) agreed to meet in excess of a Government Grant from the Boards Shingle Royalty revenue for the Wairoa and Nuhaka rivers.

At least we now have modern equipment to carry out the task but somewhere along the way we have lost basic , commonsense understanding , of actions that are required .

The decision making has been lost in a world of computers and correctness, bowing to new masters instead of holding on to knowledge and experience.

So the win for Wairoa is good,  in the sense that it has put the spotlight on a problem but the question now is will someone ask the hard questions and resolve what are apparently major problems in the system and how can they be resolved.  

  

  

  

 

 Thou Shalt not Lie

News items come and go. It is hard to keep up with the daily bombardment sprayed through various media outlets , let alone absorb and analyse  the content.

Early this morning this morning I caught the Finance Minister being interviewed about a report by the Insurance Industry that stated that New Zealand , I say that again, New Zealand , may be subject to another major weather event in the next 50 years.

Well there's some safe space for a start  .50 years. 

We can speculate all we want but we are talking about nature. That wonderful  encompassing world that we walk in everyday.

It's possible that we may have a storm anytime. We may not.

The terminology around return events confuses many people but it is understandable and its use in planning has been acceptable although it may be challenged in the future.

 

Having lived in one of the flooded areas for 40 years allows one to have some perspective  and balance in reflecting on Gabrielle .1 in 50 or 1 in 100 or even 1 in 200 has some meaning because you have past events that you can use to measure and compare. 

Back to the report.

Of course there is chance of further weather events of elevated magnitude but , and here is the big but, the authorities and Insurance fraternity say that these weather events will be more frequent because of climate change.

The Finance Minister , when asked about the report said 'well that's climate change' . She also mentioned we are going to have to adapt to climate change and have laws that are fit for purpose.(What does that mean?)

And then " we are going to have to get debt down so we can afford to pay for events"

This was all around comments on building in areas that were not prone to flooding and as an extension to that I would add probably retreat in coastal areas because of dreaded sea level rise.

We are living in a time where lies are being told. Porkies. 

The minute the narrative is changed from the weather to climate change when discussing weather events we are shifting from nature to lies.

The weather is nature , climate change happens all the time. It is a natural phenomenon but is used to

 impregnate  porkies in to society.

Gabrielle was an event that was of major proportion. May be a 1 in 500 year event. 

It was unforseen in planning and stopbanks that were built for a 1 in 100 year return were insufficient to with hold such a force .Even stopbanks built to a 1 in 200 year would have been vulnerable.

The kneejerk response to Gabrielle has already destroyed our community  and is creating a scene ripe for corporate exploitation .

The Minister needs to understand the difference between climate change and weather and may be take some advice from the scientists who expouse the truth.