Outrageous Response

Where would the media be without a good disaster?

It is hard to keep up with the continuing coverage of the latest weather event but one item in particular had me shaking my head.

A report on Radio NZ covered comments from 'experts' (what is an expert) and the fearmongering was extreme and beyond belief.

A Professor Bronwyn Hayward from Canterbury University was quoted as saying the following.

"children that have been born in 2020 and since will face over four times the number of extreme events in their lifetimes than any of us who were 55 in 2020 will ever experience in our remaining lives"

That is an outrageous claim and has no factual base. There is no way a prediction can be made about future events because there are too many factors to consider and it is likely this claim is based on the climate change scam that has infected our institutions. It is also irresponsible to make such a claim knowing that such claims could scare people unnecessarily .  

In the future the weather patterns could change completely and NZ could experience continuing droughts or cold periods or warm periods. Nature has a mind of its own and will do what it has done for thousands of years.  

Coulds and mights. Even modelling will not predict the precise future or regularity of  weather events.

Councils around the country are familiar with their geographical features , the rivers and the infrastructure that has been created to protect ratepayers and there is a familiarity with flooding going back years.

The reactions appearing now revolve around the myth of climate change and we are heading down the wrong path if this is what dictates responses.

     

  

 Bay of Plenty Event

Sometimes it's best to sit back and observe.

The latest rain event hung around for a few days and along with the gusty easterly , knocked some fruit off the trees and caused frustration in the middle of the plum harvest.

All the time I was tracking the cloud mass as it sat over a huge area and continued to rain down on the Bay of  Plenty and Gisborne .

Once upon a time it was Gizzy that was the place to go in summer. Surfing , sand , sun and fun.

We are going through a period where weather patterns have changed and summers can be punctuated with these cursed easterlies that spoil everything.

That brings me to the sit back and observe note.

The reaction in the media following the rain event has been nuts.

There are too many knee jerk commentaries that leap to the anthropomorphic  climate change conclusion.

Newspapers and online media stories preaching doom and gloom if we don't stop driving cars or burning coal.

No perspective. No experience. No attempt to research and understand the weather.

The other coverage that has become over the top is the blame game being played.

Cooler heads are needed.

It's a bloody disaster that's for real. We need time to digest what has happened and better understand the hows and why of the event.

One thing of concern is that Councils and Government agencies are going to go down the same track as Gabrielle.

It's following that pattern already as though we have learned nothing in the last three years.

 

          

Triggered.

Easterlies trigger me.

In younger days it meant sports was off. Rugby was off . Whining about nothing to do was on.

Then came Bola. That was a good easterly that felled trees and gave rise to massive erosion on the East Coast.

Then we had Gabrielle almost three years ago now.

I have likely missed any number of easterlies in between that swirled around for three days ( nearly always three days) and caused rivers to rise, minor flooding and more cancelled sports events.

The last few days have welcomed another easterly that whacked Northern New Zealand and has hung around like a bad friend and continued to slam in to eastern districts with considerable negative impact.

I don't know whether the multi option weather sites are a good or bad thing .I follow one in particular where I can interpret satellite images that suit my understanding of the weather gods and draw conclusions as to how bad the impact will be. How much will I lose .How long will the grass grow. Are farmers happy  or have growers taken another big hit.

It's the timing that's important. The time of the year. If we experience an Easterly in winter it's not too inconvenient. Unless it is like Bola.

What makes life difficult is producing a wonderful crop , nurturing through spring , watching it grow and grow and getting excited about harvesting and then , whamo a depression forms up North and creeps down the island , slips inland and wipes the smile off your face.

The last two days have seen the hard work of so many growers smacked again at the most inconvenient time.

Why are we getting these events at this time of the year?  The weather cycles come and go but the last few years have been extremely trying for producers who can't turn trees off and on. Rain in the summer is our enemy. Give me a drought and I'll give you some great stonefruit.

I was triggered last night .The rain started to persist and I had to make a rational judgement using noise.

Gabrielle was 4 times as loud on the roof so I figured this would work out OK especially as the drains and the rivers were all clear (I hope) and the land was not as soaked as 2023.

Today the misty rain is toying with me. The ground is pretty wet but soon I will inspect the losses ,close my eyes and carry on.  

       

1 in 1000

The aftermath of Gabrielle rolls on.

Years ago Tangoio was a little place one passed heading out of Napier on the way to Gizzy. Blink and you miss it.

There was a time when the infesting Chilean Needle Grass was sprouting up on the hillsides and was a major problem to control.

Pakuratahi Valley was hardly noticeable and the flats in the valley had spuds and corn  struggling away in the salty ,silty flats near the sea.

Wonder why crops never looked the best when they were in this trying  ground ?

Nevertheless  the flats produced crops for years and helped sustain someone through another growing season.

These flats always look enticing to some. A subdivision would go well here and make a handsome profit for a developer.

What could go wrong? Life close to the sea and not far to commute to town .

Gabrielle. That's what can go wrong.

Luckily the subdivision had only just started .If there had been a full compliment of new residents it could have been a disaster.

As it was many felt the impact of the flooding and the ongoing pain of dealing with the consequences.

In a recent court case , it is intriguing that the developer of the subdivision has suggested that the subdivision consent should never have been approved. A bit strange  .

I would not like to comment on the case as I have not followed it but the Judge mentioned that Gabrielle was a 1 in 1000 year event.

That was the first definitive statement I have heard relating to the return value of the cyclone.

That is massive.

Time to contemplate the ramifications of that statement.